What is US10Y (10-year Treasury Yield)?
The price of duration in the world's reserve currency — the discount rate for everything else.
Definition
The 10-year US Treasury yield is the market-clearing yield on a 10-year US government bond. It is the *risk-free* benchmark for ~$300T of global financial assets — equity discount rates, corporate bonds, mortgage rates, EM dollar debt all reprice off it.
Why it matters for trading
- 10Y yields are the duration price. When 10Y rises 50bp in 2 weeks, growth equities (long-duration cash flows) compress disproportionately; value/cyclical (short duration) outperform.
- Yield curve shape (10Y − 2Y) signals regime. Inverted curves (2Y > 10Y) historically precede recessions by 6-18 months; steepening from inversion is the "this is happening now" signal.
- Yields and DXY are joint state variables. Both rising = hawkish Fed → risk-off. Yields rising + DXY falling = inflation expectations + USD funding stress → gold rallies, equities chop.