What is Regime States (PEACE / SLIPPERY / WAR / CRISIS)?
The four operating modes of the bias engine — which playbook is active.
Definition
Strata classifies the market into one of four regimes from cross-asset signals: PEACE (low vol, broad participation, factor models work), SLIPPERY (rising vol, narrowing breadth, momentum > mean-reversion), WAR (single-narrative dominance, correlations spike, kill-switch armed), CRISIS (liquidity stress, dealer breakdown, only Tier 0 instruments tradeable). Transitions are gated to prevent flapping; once locked, a regime usually persists for ≥4-12 hours.
Why it matters for trading
- The same signal means different things in different regimes. A +1% SPX day in PEACE is bullish persistence; the same in WAR is a relief rally fading into the next leg lower.
- Regime defines the playbook. PEACE → factor models. SLIPPERY → tighten stops, prefer trend. WAR → safe-haven overweight, freeze scalp. CRISIS → only Tier 0 names, max sizing haircuts.
- Misclassifying regime is the single largest source of factor model decay. A model trained on PEACE data applied in WAR will over-trade and bleed.